The Nightmare Begins
(Source)
People didn’t have much time to prepare or react. It was a matter of hours between “normal” and everything being placed into lockdown:
Jan 23, 2020At least 17 people are dead and more than 500 infected in China alone, as the virus spreads from Wuhan to other provinces and countries.Public transport in the Chinese mega-city, with a population of more than 11 million, has been suspended. Residents have been advised to stay put as the response to the outbreak ramps up.Auckland man Mr Li, who didn’t want his full name used, said on Tuesday people were still shopping and travelling, and the streets were bustling with people.Roughly 48 hours later, the city had gone into lockdown. For him, it started with friends and relatives cancelling planned parties and gatherings.“The face masks were all sold out. There were queues in front of every pharmacy. The usually crowded shopping malls are entirely different. The shops are all open but there’s barely any customers. The subway stations, which should be noisy and crowded in the New Year’s season, are almost empty,” he said.He said anyone seen in public was wearing a mask.“Starting from yesterday, the whole city started to feel more nervous. All the things and all the conversations in our social media group are around the virus infection.”Li said he didn’t believe it when he first heard about the likelihood of locking down the city, comparable in size to London.He had been planning to come back to Auckland in two days, but had to start changing his plans unsure when the travel restrictions would be lifted.“At five o’clock China time this morning, the Chinese Central Television Station Channel One said from ten o’clock this morning, all of the buses, subways, airport – and I’ve just heard that all the motorways – will be closed down temporarily.”
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
On This Page
Updated March 12, 2020
This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.
CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
- Total cases: 1,215
- Total deaths: 36
- Jurisdictions reporting cases: 43 (42 states and District of Columbia)
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†
| Travel-related | 125 |
| Close contact | 102 |
| Under investigation | 988 |
| Total cases | 1,215 |
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.
States Reporting Cases of COVID-19 to CDC*
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
COVID-19: Cases among Persons Repatriated to the United States
| Positive | |
|---|---|
| Wuhan, China | 3 |
| Diamond Princess Cruise Ship¶ | 46 |
COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset, January 12, 2020, to March 11, 2020, at 4pm ET (n=420)**
** Does not include cases among persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan; does not include U.S.-identified cases where the date of illness onset has not yet been reported.
Note: An ALERT is only issued when events cause me to take personal actions. I am preparing for the possibility of a global pandemic that will arrive in my own country. You should, too. This is the sort of on-the-spot analysis and reporting that we routinely offer to our subscribers but, due to the nature of this threat, we are making it public.
UPDATE#2 (1.26.20, 2:14pm ET): After reading the below article, you can access ALL of our daily updates, reports, videos and podcasts in our ongoing coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by clicking here.
___________
___________
UPDATE#1 (1.24.20, 12:45pm ET): In addition to the live updates being provided in the Comments section below, we’ve just posted a follow-up report for our premium subscribers covering preparations should this outbreak worsen.
___________
___________
The coronavirus is currently sweeping across China. So far, it has all the hallmarks of a potential true pandemic outbreak.
While it could still (and hopefully will) be contained and burn itself out, the chances of that are slipping by the hour.
If an actual pandemic breaks out, expect the following to happen quickly:
- Travel within and especially between countries will be restricted if not completely banned
- Critical shortages of materials will develop, especially medical supplies, doubly especially antivirals.
- In cities with lockdowns or quarantines, food will disappear rapidly from shelves.
Pro tip: N95 face masks are already rapidly disappearing form Amazon and other retailers. If you can’t order online, then get yourself down to Home Depot pronto to get a stash of masks for you and your family (something we’ve recommended as a part of routine preparations for years). However, don’t be a hoarder. Buy only what you really need. The time to responsibly stock up was before now.
A Quick Primer On Viruses
When I was getting my PhD through the Duke Medical school, there was a debate as to whether viruses even qualified as being a lifeform. That debate still carries on.
A virus is a protein encapsulated set of genetic instructions. Just some DNA or RNA surrounded by a complex shell that can ‘dock’ with a specific living host cell. All viruses completely lack the ability to reproduce themselves. They require the hijacking of the active replicating machinery of a host cell to reproduce and multiply.
Viruses are everywhere. A single drop of clear seawater may contain 10 million virus particles on average. You encounter them everyday. Your body already has natural immunity against hundreds of different virus types.
The problem comes in when a new virus enters the game, one which your body has not seen before, and against which you have no immunity.
An even bigger problem emerges when ‘the herd’ has not seen it before either and there’s no herd immunity to block its spread.
The biggest problem emerges when such a new virus emerges (usually by ‘jumping’ from a non-human species to humans) has the ability to spread easily between humans. By contrast, a virus that requires some sort of a host vector such as a mosquito or a tick is much more easily contained.
The Coronavirus
The coronavirus currently in question derives its name from the spiky crown of proteins (Corona = Crown) that are seen under magnification.
It first erupted on Wuhan China, and is thought to possibly have jumped from a snake species to humans:
Jan 22, 2020A new coronavirus that has claimed 17 lives in Wuhan, China, may have been transmitted to people from snakes, according to a genetic analysis. The snakes may have caught the virus from bats in the food market in which both animals were sold.
This was bound to happen sooner or later. Especially among a tightly-packed human population with a proclivity for eating many different forms of wild animals.
This virus has all the statistical and virologic markers to be a true pandemic – the sort that the world has been luckily spared for many decades. But which nature and history shows us is always an inevitability.
According to the WHO’s guidance document on pandemics, this new coronavirus is already well on its way to being a full-blown pandemic:
We are already at Phase 4. Things get really serious at Phases 5 & 6.
All we need to move to Phase 5 is for another country to report a sustained outbreak — something that seems all but certain at this point. Then it will be Game On.
“It’s Contained!”
Early reports on the media have been underselling the severity. This is expected.
For some reason governments across the world long ago decided that ‘not panicking’ people was more important than providing timely, accurate, risk-balanced information.
The straight-up lying about the Fukushima disaster was one example.
China lied like crazy about the SARS outbreak a number of years ago. And they’re certainly being less than fully revealing about this outbreak.
As of this morning (6:35 am, 1/23/20) there are two major Chinese cities under a full quarantine. Wuhan with 11 million people and Huanggang with another 6 million people:
Health officials fear the transmission rate will accelerate as hundreds of millions of Chinese travel at home and abroad during week-long holidays for the Lunar New Year, which begins on Saturday.The previously unknown virus strain is believed to have emerged late last year from illegally traded wildlife at an animal market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.Most transport in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, was suspended on Thursday morning and people were told not to leave. Hours later, state media in neighboring Huanggang, a city of some 6 million people, said it was imposing a similar lockdown.(Source – Reuters)
Compounding the difficulty for Chinese authorities is that all of this coincides with the Lunar New Year, when hundreds of millions of Chinese typically travel about.
That’s just a recipe for disaster here.
By The Numbers
To truly appreciate and estimate the possible impact of an emerging pandemic there are a few things to know.
First, how lethal is the virus? That is, how many people die as a result of contracting the virus? This is called the “case fatality rate” or CFR in virologist lingo.
Second, how easily does it spread between victims? This measure goes by the name “R0” or “R-naught”, which we’ll get to in a minute.
The CFR of this coronavirus is not really known yet because we don’t trust the numbers coming out of China. But the numbers we’ve got are not encouraging. In Wuhan, there are a reported 444 cases and 17 deaths.
That yields a CFR of 3.8%. There’s also been reports of 555 infections, which would yield a CFR of 3.0%. Let’s use that, while reserving the right to seriously amend these numbers when better data comes along.
The Spanish flu of 1918 which was the last true global pandemic, had a CFR of 2.5%. It was horrible and killed an estimated 50 – 60 million people. True, we’ve got substantially better containment protocols today, but they clearly are not perfect.
If a virus is ‘too lethal’ and kills above a certain threshold, it will burn itself out quickly. The 3% CFR of this coronavirus is in the ‘sweet spot’ for doing a lot of damage.
Next, it’s the contagious aspect of this particular virus that’s most worrying to me. Let’s dive into the R-naught value for a minute:
What do R0 Values Mean?R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.What do R0 values mean?Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:
- no one has been vaccinated
- no one has had the disease before
- there’s no way to control the spread of the disease
This combination of conditions is rare nowadays thanks to advances in medicine.(Source – Healthline)
Here’s what we know – the R0 of this virus is way above zero. We don’t have a solid value yet, but our clue lies in the fact that a reported 15 healthcare workers in Wuhan contracted the disease from being around their patients.
These would be people using the very latest in protective measures, too – masks, gloves, proper handwashing, and even full hazmat suits.
The one case in Hong Kong turned into 5 as the entire family of an infected person came down with the disease.
So this R0 is pretty worrying.
Finally, it’s those last three bullet points above that set off my alarm bells here:
- no one has been vaccinated
- no one has had the disease before
- there’s no way to control the spread of the disease
Check, check and check.
Combine those with a high R0 and now you know why China has just clamped down and quarantined two major cities with a combined 17 million people in them.
Basic information about the novel Coronarvirus, currently in China.
Coronaviruses (CoV)
A large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe respiratory diseases.
A new novel virus identified from humans 29th December 2019, 2019-nCoV
Human respiratory viral infections
Cold often caused by rhinovirus
Influenza (flu) caused by influenza virus
Coronaviruses virion
CoV is a single stranded RNA
Protein envelope (protein shell or capsid)
Crown shaped virions
Less than 100 nm
Coronaviruses are zoonotic
MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, 2012
SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, 2003
Novel previously unidentified in humans, 2019 – nCoV
Clinical features
Fever 98%
Cough 76%
Myalgia or fatigue 44%
Sputum production 28%
Headache 8%
Haemoptysis 5%
Diarrhoea 3%
Dyspnoea 55%
Severe acute respiratory infection – pneumonia
Acute respiratory distress syndrome
Radiology
Median duration from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days
Median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission 7·0 days
Time from onset of symptoms to mechanical ventilation was 10·5 days
Leucopenia less than 4 × 109/L 25%
Lymphopenia less than 1·0 × 109/L 63%
Transmission
Direct from animals, vectors
Human to human
Droplet, nasal or mouth mucosa, eyes
Coughs and sneezes spread diseases - over 2 metres
Catch it - bin it - kill it
Surfaces - hands - mucous membranes
Virus contained in an envelope, so virus can stay dormant for 5 days
Fomites
Closed environments, less likely outside
Sometimes people with mild or no symptoms can be carriers
Contagious for a few (2-5-14) days of incubation period, feeling well but still contagious.
Protection
1. Stay home, avoid planes, buses, trains, busy areas
2. No visitors avoid close contact with symptomatic people or potential carriers
3. Wear a quality medical mask
4. Wrap around glasses
5. Gloves and meticulous hand hygiene, don’t touch eyes, nose mouth
6. Don’t trust hand sanitizers
7. Avoid hospitals
Same infectiousness as SARS, lower mortality (SARS) 10% v 3%
2 to 3 people get new infection for every infected case
Treatment
Supportive
Keep warm
Hydration
Eat if hungry
No specific coronavirus antiviral drugs
Oxygen for hypoxaemia
3% mortality
No vaccine as yet
Coronaviruses (CoV)
A large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe respiratory diseases.
A new novel virus identified from humans 29th December 2019, 2019-nCoV
Human respiratory viral infections
Cold often caused by rhinovirus
Influenza (flu) caused by influenza virus
Coronaviruses virion
CoV is a single stranded RNA
Protein envelope (protein shell or capsid)
Crown shaped virions
Less than 100 nm
Coronaviruses are zoonotic
MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, 2012
SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, 2003
Novel previously unidentified in humans, 2019 – nCoV
Clinical features
Fever 98%
Cough 76%
Myalgia or fatigue 44%
Sputum production 28%
Headache 8%
Haemoptysis 5%
Diarrhoea 3%
Dyspnoea 55%
Severe acute respiratory infection – pneumonia
Acute respiratory distress syndrome
Radiology
Median duration from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days
Median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission 7·0 days
Time from onset of symptoms to mechanical ventilation was 10·5 days
Leucopenia less than 4 × 109/L 25%
Lymphopenia less than 1·0 × 109/L 63%
Transmission
Direct from animals, vectors
Human to human
Droplet, nasal or mouth mucosa, eyes
Coughs and sneezes spread diseases - over 2 metres
Catch it - bin it - kill it
Surfaces - hands - mucous membranes
Virus contained in an envelope, so virus can stay dormant for 5 days
Fomites
Closed environments, less likely outside
Sometimes people with mild or no symptoms can be carriers
Contagious for a few (2-5-14) days of incubation period, feeling well but still contagious.
Protection
1. Stay home, avoid planes, buses, trains, busy areas
2. No visitors avoid close contact with symptomatic people or potential carriers
3. Wear a quality medical mask
4. Wrap around glasses
5. Gloves and meticulous hand hygiene, don’t touch eyes, nose mouth
6. Don’t trust hand sanitizers
7. Avoid hospitals
Same infectiousness as SARS, lower mortality (SARS) 10% v 3%
2 to 3 people get new infection for every infected case
Treatment
Supportive
Keep warm
Hydration
Eat if hungry
No specific coronavirus antiviral drugs
Oxygen for hypoxaemia
3% mortality
No vaccine as yet
Don't go to the ED unless home treatments fail
Home treatment of febrile Influenza Like Illnesses/Respiratory Infection
[This is a very educated group and most are well versed in this.]
During outbreaks of viral illness, the ED will be a mad house. Stay away if possible. Recommend strong attempts at self-treatment at home. Stay out of the hospital unless truly needed.
- Ibuprofen 800 mg (or naproxen) for fever, body aches, headache, chest wall soreness. This is a miraculous drug for the misery of ILI. It also helps to sort out the miserable from the seriously sick (see below).
- If not vomiting repeatedly, you can drink water. “Drink until you pee.” Lots.
- Electrolytes in water if diarrhea is a part of fluid losses.
- If incessant coughing, Nyquil or equivalent.
The hospital ED will be a miserable place during a flu epidemic. Long waits, no pillows or blankets. No snacks. No sympathy from the staff!! Sleeping on the floor of the hallways. Remember that the ED staff is probably sick also.
A few situations where hospital care IS needed.
- Intractable vomiting (>6-8 times) or vomiting with diarrhea. IV fluids and anti-emetics will help when not able to hydrate by mouth.
- Chest pain and shortness of breath with fever, IF associated with fast pulse and low oxygen saturation. Might be pneumonia. Chest x-ray. Supplemental oxygen if oxygen is actually low. Measure pulse rate an oxygen saturation (see below). In children, fast breathing at rest, even after good fever control, points towards pneumonia.
- Severe headache even after big doses of Ibuprofen and hydration. Might be meningitis. Spinal tap needed. IV antibiotics might help. Don’t even think about spinal tap until ibuprofen dose has been in body for 2 hours—everyone with the flu has a terrible headache.
- Urinary symptoms. UTI can give a ILI, especially in children and women.
- Wheezing with cough. May have an asthma-like response to the infection. Albuterol (and maybe steroids) may help. Uncommon.
Equipment list for home treatment of ILI:
- Costco sized bottle of Ibuprofen or Naproxen. (Use the big dose)
- Watch with second hand to measure pulse rate and respiratory rate.
- Pulse oximeter, $29 from Walmart or Amazon. This device will save you an ED trip. Recommended! Pic below.
- Big tumbler for water. Drink and refill often.
- Electrolyte powder (mag and K) in water if have diarrhea.
- Disinfectant wipes.
General Immune system support as outlined by many above (vita c, vita D3, plant antioxidants, Zn, Se, N-Acetyl cysteine, etc).
Q: What is the etiology of my ILI/URI?
A: It doesn’t matter. Treatment approach is the same.
—————–
Lots of bugs cause ILI/URI. Most treated the same way. One example.
Home treatment of febrile Influenza Like Illnesses/Respiratory Infection
[This is a very educated group and most are well versed in this.]
During outbreaks of viral illness, the ED will be a mad house. Stay away if possible. Recommend strong attempts at self-treatment at home. Stay out of the hospital unless truly needed.
- Ibuprofen 800 mg (or naproxen) for fever, body aches, headache, chest wall soreness. This is a miraculous drug for the misery of ILI. It also helps to sort out the miserable from the seriously sick (see below).
- If not vomiting repeatedly, you can drink water. “Drink until you pee.” Lots.
- Electrolytes in water if diarrhea is a part of fluid losses.
- If incessant coughing, Nyquil or equivalent.
The hospital ED will be a miserable place during a flu epidemic. Long waits, no pillows or blankets. No snacks. No sympathy from the staff!! Sleeping on the floor of the hallways. Remember that the ED staff is probably sick also.
A few situations where hospital care IS needed.
- Intractable vomiting (>6-8 times) or vomiting with diarrhea. IV fluids and anti-emetics will help when not able to hydrate by mouth.
- Chest pain and shortness of breath with fever, IF associated with fast pulse and low oxygen saturation. Might be pneumonia. Chest x-ray. Supplemental oxygen if oxygen is actually low. Measure pulse rate an oxygen saturation (see below). In children, fast breathing at rest, even after good fever control, points towards pneumonia.
- Severe headache even after big doses of Ibuprofen and hydration. Might be meningitis. Spinal tap needed. IV antibiotics might help. Don’t even think about spinal tap until ibuprofen dose has been in body for 2 hours—everyone with the flu has a terrible headache.
- Urinary symptoms. UTI can give a ILI, especially in children and women.
- Wheezing with cough. May have an asthma-like response to the infection. Albuterol (and maybe steroids) may help. Uncommon.
Equipment list for home treatment of ILI:
- Costco sized bottle of Ibuprofen or Naproxen. (Use the big dose)
- Watch with second hand to measure pulse rate and respiratory rate.
- Pulse oximeter, $29 from Walmart or Amazon. This device will save you an ED trip. Recommended! Pic below.
- Big tumbler for water. Drink and refill often.
- Electrolyte powder (mag and K) in water if have diarrhea.
- Disinfectant wipes.
General Immune system support as outlined by many above (vita c, vita D3, plant antioxidants, Zn, Se, N-Acetyl cysteine, etc).
Q: What is the etiology of my ILI/URI?
A: It doesn’t matter. Treatment approach is the same.
—————–
Lots of bugs cause ILI/URI. Most treated the same way. One example.
facts and predictions
sandpuppy, thank you very much for the advice, I just ordered an oximeter. CM thank you very much for the elderberry information. I am surprised sometimes by the availability of naturally occurring useful-active plant components and have become a believer. We have a Chinese medicine here made from horribly tasting plant powder that actually seems to cure a common cold (works for me but has nasty side effects).
Facts:
1. In the age before molecular biology knowledge, everytime a new virus emerged (mostly due to mutations in the outer coat protein that eliminates the old, familiar immunologically seen epitope(s)) most people ended up with an infection and many died. In the modern world however, (after the first wave or two of deaths) we can discover the new epitopes and/or mechanisms and quickly make a vaccine. SARS and Ebola were handled this way.
2. The Chinese very quickly sequenced the new corona virus (and have good ideas of evolving variants thereof) and found the relevant differences in the expressed/exposed protein epitopes.
3. The Chinese will manufacture a vaccine based on this knowledge. I note that the Chinese make (directly or indirectly) most medicines used in America. We are kind of passive observers in this drama. Our number one medical drug supplier is experiencing a very nasty new virus infection and will make a drug(s) for it after some time.
4. This is a very serious disease, comparable with major scourges of old and the world will suffer some real damage, likely thousands or maybe even tens of thousands will die out of a 7 billion population. I have a trip planned to China next month so this affects me personally. But this is not the 1930s. For most people in the US who do not visit Wuhan, there is a greater chance of death from overeating chicken eggs or wandering outside during thunderstorms.
sandpuppy, thank you very much for the advice, I just ordered an oximeter. CM thank you very much for the elderberry information. I am surprised sometimes by the availability of naturally occurring useful-active plant components and have become a believer. We have a Chinese medicine here made from horribly tasting plant powder that actually seems to cure a common cold (works for me but has nasty side effects).
Facts:
1. In the age before molecular biology knowledge, everytime a new virus emerged (mostly due to mutations in the outer coat protein that eliminates the old, familiar immunologically seen epitope(s)) most people ended up with an infection and many died. In the modern world however, (after the first wave or two of deaths) we can discover the new epitopes and/or mechanisms and quickly make a vaccine. SARS and Ebola were handled this way.
1. In the age before molecular biology knowledge, everytime a new virus emerged (mostly due to mutations in the outer coat protein that eliminates the old, familiar immunologically seen epitope(s)) most people ended up with an infection and many died. In the modern world however, (after the first wave or two of deaths) we can discover the new epitopes and/or mechanisms and quickly make a vaccine. SARS and Ebola were handled this way.
2. The Chinese very quickly sequenced the new corona virus (and have good ideas of evolving variants thereof) and found the relevant differences in the expressed/exposed protein epitopes.
3. The Chinese will manufacture a vaccine based on this knowledge. I note that the Chinese make (directly or indirectly) most medicines used in America. We are kind of passive observers in this drama. Our number one medical drug supplier is experiencing a very nasty new virus infection and will make a drug(s) for it after some time.
4. This is a very serious disease, comparable with major scourges of old and the world will suffer some real damage, likely thousands or maybe even tens of thousands will die out of a 7 billion population. I have a trip planned to China next month so this affects me personally. But this is not the 1930s. For most people in the US who do not visit Wuhan, there is a greater chance of death from overeating chicken eggs or wandering outside during thunderstorms.
Some “To-Do’s...
Remember a pandemic can take 6-9 months to burn itself out. Sure, food, toiletries, cash, etc. should be stocked up, so we can avoid going to town. Here are some other things we talked about in our house tonight…
Get the car tuned up, and the oil changed. Buy some oil and a filter in case we need to do it. Get extras of our prescriptions filled now. Get annual or regular doctor visits taken care of. Top off our propane tank. Call the electrician, plumber, handy-man, mechanic to fix “that thing”; get it done now. Get the septic tank pumped. Go to the dentist for our cleaning, and check-up. Go for our eye exam. Get any clothing we might need over a 9-month period. Buy some more board games.
We are retired, so we can hunker down. But, regardless of your situation, there are things you can do right now, that will limit your exposure to a pandemic, if you do it now.
One last thought we had. If we get sick, who might be willing to come help us? Based on some of what Chris posted, many people in China who get the virus are way too sick to care for themselves. So, we’ve discussed who we would trust to look in on us if we are sick, and who we would be willing to reciprocate care for if they are ill. We are going to get this clarified and formalized in the next few weeks.
Remember a pandemic can take 6-9 months to burn itself out. Sure, food, toiletries, cash, etc. should be stocked up, so we can avoid going to town. Here are some other things we talked about in our house tonight…
Get the car tuned up, and the oil changed. Buy some oil and a filter in case we need to do it. Get extras of our prescriptions filled now. Get annual or regular doctor visits taken care of. Top off our propane tank. Call the electrician, plumber, handy-man, mechanic to fix “that thing”; get it done now. Get the septic tank pumped. Go to the dentist for our cleaning, and check-up. Go for our eye exam. Get any clothing we might need over a 9-month period. Buy some more board games.
We are retired, so we can hunker down. But, regardless of your situation, there are things you can do right now, that will limit your exposure to a pandemic, if you do it now.
One last thought we had. If we get sick, who might be willing to come help us? Based on some of what Chris posted, many people in China who get the virus are way too sick to care for themselves. So, we’ve discussed who we would trust to look in on us if we are sick, and who we would be willing to reciprocate care for if they are ill. We are going to get this clarified and formalized in the next few weeks.
vitacost elderberry
vitacost is the one we use when we dont have enough homemade, it is a concentrate, so stronger, and is a good price. they have their own website, and also great prices on vitamens, canned organic soups, etc…
This one https://www.vitacost.com/vitacost-sambucus-elderberry-ultra-concentrated-black-elderberry-extract-syrup?ta=elderberr&t=elderberry and that bottle is basically for one person for one illness, usually, sometimes less is used if the person gets better fast. Taking a teaspoon 4 times a day is typical, so 48 servings means 12 days if used at that rate, for example. If sicker, maybe more often. 2 bottles of this concentrate plus some vit C with get you over $25 in vitacost brand to net free shipping….
Also, I buy dry elderberries, and yes I will sometimes use Amazon, but only one of the herbal sources that I trust, so if on Amazon frontier co-op or starwest botanicals, for example, are good sources for dried elderberries, it is not too hard to make a syrup, do it ahead of time. I made some for family as part of a natural and homemade first aid supply christmas gift, and I water bath canned it so it is shelf stable. I made mine with some sugar, instead of honey, so it was infant safe. It doesnt take much.
vitacost is the one we use when we dont have enough homemade, it is a concentrate, so stronger, and is a good price. they have their own website, and also great prices on vitamens, canned organic soups, etc…
This one https://www.vitacost.com/vitacost-sambucus-elderberry-ultra-concentrated-black-elderberry-extract-syrup?ta=elderberr&t=elderberry and that bottle is basically for one person for one illness, usually, sometimes less is used if the person gets better fast. Taking a teaspoon 4 times a day is typical, so 48 servings means 12 days if used at that rate, for example. If sicker, maybe more often. 2 bottles of this concentrate plus some vit C with get you over $25 in vitacost brand to net free shipping….
Also, I buy dry elderberries, and yes I will sometimes use Amazon, but only one of the herbal sources that I trust, so if on Amazon frontier co-op or starwest botanicals, for example, are good sources for dried elderberries, it is not too hard to make a syrup, do it ahead of time. I made some for family as part of a natural and homemade first aid supply christmas gift, and I water bath canned it so it is shelf stable. I made mine with some sugar, instead of honey, so it was infant safe. It doesnt take much.
Alternative to Elderberry.....Blackberry and Chokeberry
When the supplies of elderberry syrup dry up, a good alternative is blackberry and chokeberry (AKA Aronia).
It’s the anthocyanin pigments in elderberries that are suspected to be responsible for their flu-fighting properties, specifically the cyanidin pigments. See The inhibitory performance of flavonoid cyanidin-3-sambubiocide against H274Y mutation in H1N1 influenza virus. and Anti-influenza activity of elderberry (Sambucus nigra).
You can see on a chart from this study of anthocyanins (Anthocyanin content and antioxidant activity of various red fruit juices) that both elderberries and chokeberries contain the highest content of total anthocyanins.
However, if the active flu-fighting anthocyanin component is the cyanidin 3-glucoside (cyn 3-glu), elderberries contain a much larger fraction of these sub-anthocynins than most other berries.
Blackberries have the next most cy-3-glu content, coming in a close second to elderberry.
Although there has been quite a bit of research into anthocyanin pigments in the last decade, how they work in the human body is still not well understood. For example, most anthocyanin pigments are never actually absorbed (in their intact form) into the blood stream. It is thought that they mainly act on the microbiome in the gut.
While chokeberries have only a small fraction of the specific cy-3-glu that elderberries contain, they do have an impressive amount of total cyanidin and anthocyanin concentrations. As anthocyanins are believed to act synergistically with one another, consuming a wide-spectrum of them is considered to be a good strategy.
You can buy dried chokeberries here. They are very bitter (hence the “choke”) but edible. Consuming the berry in it’s whole-food form, versus a syrup, is probably a better idea because you don’t really know how an extract is made. You can buy freeze-dried elderberries here.
I have several gallons of chokeberry juice in my chest-fridge (under the beer). I can’t find it any more to buy, but I’ve been saving it for just such an occasion. It really tastes horrible….cheers.
And put frozen blackberries on your shopping list at the grocery store too.
Hope this info helps and thank you Dr. M for your great work on this.
All the best….Jeff
First evidence of Human-To-Human spread
The earliest definitive report of human-to-human spread I can find is from Jan 14th.
A random person with a fever in Shanghai...Evidence of human-to-human spread
Yesterday [Jan 14th], Wuhan’s health department noted a family cluster of a husband who worked at the market and his wife, who had not been at the market, which appears to be the first indication of limited human-to-human spread.
Today, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Wuhan authorities told visiting Hong Kong health officials that three members of the same household were among the 41 cases. They include a father, his son, and a cousin who ran a seafood stall at the market at the center of the investigation and got sick at the same time, suggesting that they may have been exposed to the same source. The market also sold live animals such as poultry, bats, and marmots, along with wildlife parts.
The report also gave new information on environmental testing at the seafood market, following reports yesterday that some samples were positive for 2019-nCoV. One of the Hong Kong experts quoted in the SCMP story, Chuang Shuk-kwan, MBBS, said so far, only sample collected from the seafood section of the market tested positive, but experts don’t think the chance of a seafood source is high and are looking for the source in animals.
In a media briefing transcript posted today by Hong Kong’s government, she said some of the cases were also clustered around the area of the market where seafood was sold. “So, they are chasing it, where the source is. But the investigation is still ongoing so there is no conclusion yet.”
A Chinese tourist tested positive for 2019-nCoV a few days ago while visiting Thailand, after frequenting a different market in Wuhan, heightening suspicions that the source of the virus may be other markets, as well. Preliminary environmental testing at other markets has not turned up any positives.
(Source)
Taking it very seriously. Impressively, actually.
Will it be enough? From a random Twitter feed:
Will it be enough? From a random Twitter feed:
My cousin in China sent me this – Shanghai Hong Qiao airport found a person with fever from Wuhan. This is how they deal with this personTo give this a personal element
(Source)
I teach many teenage students who are from China (our school’s largest international population, in fact), and one of them has parents and extended family in Wuhan as we speak, while most of the others are glued to their phones and communicating with their families back in China constantly. They say they are “fine,” but after years of reading my Chinese students I can tell you they are unsettled. Not panicked, but unsettled. I expect that will change as things worsen, and I’ve notified my otherwise clueless administration to keep an eye on them.
As an aside, I’ve been reading some borderline racist and culturally-biased stuff out on the Twittersphere about China and the Chinese, so I just want to put it out there that they are people who love their kids, are trying their best to get by day-to-day, and pretty much want to sail through life fairly happy without getting killed in any kind of horrible way. Watching the children worry deeply about their loved ones back home, during the holiday that means so much for them, snaps one back into the reality that these are real people, just like us. I wish the Chinese well in this, and hope the loss of life is minimal.
I can only imagine how bad things are getting in Wuhan already, though, and it is a stark reminder that we should brush up on what materials and preps we have in place, so as to jump on it now. If I’m guesstimating correctly, and if this thing blows open, we have at most a few weeks before the shit hits the fan here. Get ahead of the herd!
As an aside, I’ve been reading some borderline racist and culturally-biased stuff out on the Twittersphere about China and the Chinese, so I just want to put it out there that they are people who love their kids, are trying their best to get by day-to-day, and pretty much want to sail through life fairly happy without getting killed in any kind of horrible way. Watching the children worry deeply about their loved ones back home, during the holiday that means so much for them, snaps one back into the reality that these are real people, just like us. I wish the Chinese well in this, and hope the loss of life is minimal.
I can only imagine how bad things are getting in Wuhan already, though, and it is a stark reminder that we should brush up on what materials and preps we have in place, so as to jump on it now. If I’m guesstimating correctly, and if this thing blows open, we have at most a few weeks before the shit hits the fan here. Get ahead of the herd!
Stage 1 Preparation
Its been a while but as soon as this story broke I knew where to go.
I’m going to start phase 1 of my prep JUST IN CASE. I have a 2 year old son and a 5 month pregnant wife. Phase 1 includes the following:
– LOADS OF WATER
– I ordered 2 months of formula for my son. He drinks HIPP Combiatik from Germany. Good stuff
– LOADS OF DIAPERS AND TOILET PAPER
– PROPANE TANKS (ABOUT 2 OF THEM)
– LOADS OF CEREAL AND ALMOND MILK
– MASKS AND GLOVES
– ELDERBERRY SYRUP (THANKS CM)
I’m going to start phase 1 of my prep JUST IN CASE. I have a 2 year old son and a 5 month pregnant wife. Phase 1 includes the following:
– LOADS OF WATER
– I ordered 2 months of formula for my son. He drinks HIPP Combiatik from Germany. Good stuff
– LOADS OF DIAPERS AND TOILET PAPER
– PROPANE TANKS (ABOUT 2 OF THEM)
– LOADS OF CEREAL AND ALMOND MILK
– MASKS AND GLOVES
– ELDERBERRY SYRUP (THANKS CM)
Riverside County supervisors Tuesday formally ratified a local public health emergency declaration stemming from novel coronavirus cases in the county, directing key agencies to initiate efforts to mitigate potential impacts of the virus.
The Board of Supervisors’ action was required after county Public Health Officer Dr. Cameron Kaiser unilaterally issued a countywide health emergency Sunday. His order could legally only last one week.
“At this point, our strategy is mitigation,” Kaiser told the board. “We need to prevent our medical facilities from being overloaded. For the majority of people, (coronavirus) will be an unpleasant nuisance. But for the elderly and the immuno-compromised (who may become infected), there will need to be more extensive care.”
The local emergency declaration provides means for the county to marshal resources that can be dedicated to containing coronavirus, relying on state and federal aid. Agencies empowered to take the helm in developing containment strategies are the Department of Public Health and Emergency Management Department, with further coordination among other units.
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s March 4 statewide emergency declaration established guidelines for counties and municipalities to follow.
“We have centralized coordination and response,” Department of Public Health Director Kim Saruwatari said. “Our priority is to protect the public. We’re doing everything we can to stop the spread.”
She noted that information campaigns are getting underway to answer questions from individuals and businesses, and she said recommended protocols have been provided to correctional facilities and other county operations regarding how to prevent viral transmission.
“We are all-hands-on-deck here,” EMD Director Bruce Barton told the board. “We need support to make sure people are receiving trusted sources of information. Don’t necessarily pay attention to what’s going on in the social media market.”
Supervisor Karen Spiegel expressed concern about the ripple effects on businesses, particularly when large conferences are canceled due to fears about viral exposure.
The department heads hoped that as information campaigns kick into high-gear, groups planning big events will have better knowledge about risks and limitations.
“We’re developing guidance on large gatherings,” Kaiser said. “We hope the economic impacts on the county will be blunted. But people should realize there will be impacts, and those are unavoidable.”
He stressed that a public health emergency does not translate into a blanket strategy to quarantine every person who may have been in contact with another individual who likely was exposed.
“We don’t quarantine contacts of contacts,” the doctor said. “And we don’t test people who are asymptomatic.”
Many patients will do fine recovering from a viral infection at home, Kaiser said.
He said Monday that the three new COVID-19 infections surfaced after the county’s first was confirmed over the weekend. Two patients are self- quarantined in their homes, while the third is undergoing treatment at a Coachella Valley hospital. None were identified.
Kaiser did not specify whether any of the individuals had been in contact with a person now in isolation at Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage receiving treatment for the virus.
“It is now considered a case of `community spread,”‘ according to a Riverside University Health System statement. “Community spread involves transmission of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It indicates that the virus was not contracted through relevant travel history or contact to a known case of COVID-19, and suggests that the virus is present in the community.”
Kaiser urged precautions, particularly for people with underlying conditions, such as seniors who may be in compromised health or HIV carriers. The doctor said avoiding large gatherings and limiting non-essential travel would be good steps. He also asked individuals who develop suspect symptoms to stay away from others.
Two county residents were diagnosed with coronavirus while under quarantine aboard a Diamond Princess cruise liner anchored in Northern California. But those individuals were infected while traveling and not in Southern California, according to health officials.
Meanwhile, test results for a Murrieta Valley High School employee under self-quarantine for coronavirus came back negative Monday, and officials announced classes will resume Wednesday.
The school was shuttered Monday, and district officials had intended to keep it closed until lab test results on the employee, who traveled to a location where coronavirus was present and became ill, were vetted.
The Coachella Valley developments led to the cancellation of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which was scheduled to begin this week. The annual tennis tournament is considered the sport’s second-most important event in the United States after the U.S. Open in New York. It may be rescheduled.
According to the World Health Organization, more than 100,000 coronavirus cases have been documented globally, the vast majority in China, where it originated. Close to 4,000 people have died — most in China, officials said. About 500 infections — including 150 in California — have been recorded in the U.S., two dozen of which have been fatal.
By contrast, according to the CDC, there have been about 20,000 deaths stemming from flu-related complications nationwide since the start of influenza season in September.
NO PLACE LIKE HELL
Alex Jones ordered to stop selling fake coronavirus cures
New York’s attorney general attacked the host’s ‘latest mistruths’
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New York attorney general Letitia James has ordered radio host and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones to stop claiming that InfoWars’ products can protect against the novel coronavirus. In a statement, the attorney general said that Jones marketed toothpaste, dietary supplements, and creams as being able to prevent or cure the virus. “[Alex Jones’] latest mistruths are incredibly dangerous and pose a serious threat to the public health of New Yorkers and individuals across the nation,” the attorney general said.
In particular, Jones claimed that his Superblue Toothpaste “kills the whole SARS-corona family at point-blank range” despite there currently being no cure or vaccine for the coronavirus, HuffPost previously reported. When viewing the toothpaste’s product page, there is now a notice which says “this product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease” and adds that anyone who’s currently taking medication should consult their physician before using it. The Verge has not been able to verify when this message was added.
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The new coronavirus is spreading through the US, where several states have made emergency declarations; the World Health Organization has declared it a pandemic. Here are the basics:
Everything you need to know about the coronavirus
“As the coronavirus continues to pose serious risks to public health, Alex Jones has spewed outright lies and has profited off of New Yorkers’ anxieties,” the attorney general said in a statement, “If these unlawful violations do not cease immediately, my office will not hesitate to take legal action and hold Mr. Jones accountable for the harm he’s caused.”
The action taken against Alex Jones is part of a broader push against companies trying to use COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, to sell their products or boost profits. The New York Attorney General has already sent cease and desist orders to two other companies that claim their colloidal silver products can treat the coronavirus, and it’s ordered the Jim Bakker show to stop marketing one of them.
Meanwhile, online platforms are also cracking down. Facebook has banned ads that “guarantee a cure or prevention” for the virus, or which otherwise try to create a sense of urgency, like implying a limited supply. Others have been struggling to prevent price gouging on necessary items like face masks and hand sanitizers. Amazon has begun restricting which sellers on its Marketplace platform can sell them, while eBay has banned their sale entirely.
Missouri Sues Televangelist Jim Bakker For Selling Fake Coronavirus Cure
Televangelist Jim Bakker held up a blue and silver bottle, gazing intently at the label, as he questioned the woman sitting next to him.
"This influenza that is now circling the globe," Bakker said on the Feb. 12 broadcast of The Jim Bakker Show, "you're saying that Silver Solution would be effective."
His guest, the so-called "natural health expert" Sherrill Sellman, falsely implied that the liquid would likely be effective. The coronavirus impacting more than 120,000 people worldwide does not yet have a known treatment or cure.
"Well, let's say it hasn't been tested on this strain of the coronavirus, but it has been tested on other strains of the coronavirus and has been able to eliminate it within 12 hours," Sellman said. "Totally eliminate it. Kills it. Deactivates it."
Silver Solution "has been proven by the government that it has the ability to kill every pathogen it has ever been tested on, including SARS and HIV," Sellman continued. Four 4-ounce bottles could be yours, a message on the screen said, for just $80.
Selling a fake "treatment" for the COVID-19 disease violates state and federal law. On Tuesday, the state of Missouri filed a lawsuit against Bakker and his production company to stop them from advertising or selling Silver Solution and related products as treatments for the coronavirus.
Bakker and Morningside Church Productions have violated Missouri law by "falsely promising to consumers that Silver Solution can cure, eliminate, kill or deactivate coronavirus and/or boost elderly consumers' immune system and help keep them healthy when there is, in fact, no vaccine, pill, potion or other product available to treat or cure coronavirus disease 2019," the Missouri Attorney General's Office wrote in its application for a temporary restraining order. Bakker and his company are based in the state.
Bakker gained fame in the 1970s and '80s as the host of The PTL Club, a Christian television program he hosted with his then-wife, Tammy Faye. He stepped down from PTL after a sex scandal and later spent several years in prison after a jury found that he had defrauded his viewers out of millions of dollars.
Missouri is the first state to file a lawsuit against Bakker for selling his coronavirus "treatment," but others have also been warning him to stop peddling his snake oil. On March 3, the New York Attorney General's Office sent a cease-and-desist letter to Bakker, accusing him of defrauding the public.
"Your show's segment may mislead consumers as to the effectiveness of the Silver Solution product in protecting against the current outbreak," wrote Lisa Landau, chief of the New York Attorney General's Office's health care bureau. The World Health Organization "has noted that there is no specific medicine to prevent or treat this disease," the letter said. It gave Bakker 10 business days to comply or face legal action.
A few days after New York's letter, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Federal Trade Commission warned Bakker that his website and Facebook page were selling "unapproved new drugs" in violation of the law.
By Wednesday, Bakker's website was no longer selling the solution. Bakker's production company did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesman for the Missouri Attorney General's Office told NPR that even though Silver Solution is no longer being sold, the office would continue seeking the temporary restraining order. "That way they can't come back in months or years and start selling solution as a miracle cure again," the attorney general's press secretary, Chris Nuelle, said.
Bakker's solution did not escape the attention of late-night comedians. "That is ridiculous," John Oliver said on Last Week Tonight. "Silver does not kill coronavirus. Silver kills werewolves. Which means first you need to get your coronavirus bitten by a microscopic werewolf." Oliver then offered his "Premium Werewolf Solution" for $49.99 per bottle, which he promised contained "millions of microscopic werewolves."
In addition to The Jim Bakker Show, the FDA sent warnings on Monday to six other companies that were selling colloidal silver, teas, tinctures or essential oils as treatments for the coronavirus. "There already is a high level of anxiety over the potential spread of coronavirus," said FTC Chairman Joe Simons. "What we don't need in this situation are companies preying on consumers by promoting products with fraudulent prevention and treatment claims."
For the past two decades, the FDA's message has been clear: Silver doesn't work to combat serious diseases. Over-the-counter drugs that contain colloidal silver ingredients "are not generally recognized as safe and effective," it says. According to the National Institutes of Health, very little evidence backs up the health-related claims of silver. "Colloidal silver can be dangerous to your health," the NIH says.
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